2026 International Soccer Tournament Predictions
International football tournament 2026 predictions: our knockout stage picks and best bets
The knockout rounds of the biggest quadrennial soccer tournament continue with the quarter and semi-finals, and It's All at Stake! Keep up to date with our regular coverage of the event as national teams go head-to-head in the United States and North America for a chance to make history.
All matches in the 2026 international football tournament are available to bet on when you join Stake Sportsbook, with the latest soccer betting odds now live. Our pre-tournament dark horses, Norway and Morocco, are now both in the last 8, as is our early winner prediction, France. Use our football picks and analysis at Stake, alongside your own research when making your bets to make informed calls.
Who will win the tournament: our updated outright prediction
France were pre-tournament favourites and have remained our betting pick to win the 2026 international football tournament throughout the group stage and early knockout rounds. France dominated their group before comfortably passing Sweden and Paraguay in the last 32 and last 16. So far, France have scored 14 goals while conceding just 2.
Morocco in the quarterfinal will be a tough test for France, but they have a well-balanced squad, with experienced players at some of the biggest clubs in the world. Mbappe has been the standout star, with the attacking talents of Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise also impressing. Not only that, but France has excellent strength in depth, with top players like Rayan Cherki and Désiré Doué coming off the bench in recent matches. There are plenty of strong teams left in the tournament that will pose a challenge, but France remain our favourites to win.
Quarter final predictions and picks
France vs Morocco prediction
Our France vs Morocco prediction is for France to win 2-0.
France are the favourites for this matchup, having won all their games in the tournament so far. Their attack has looked unstoppable, scoring the joint-most goals so far. Mbappe is in the race for the Golden Boot, and Olise has the most assists in the tournament so far. France also have a very strong defence, conceding just 2 goals all tournament. However, Tchouameni, who played their first 3 matches, is potentially out with an injury.
Morocco have played really well too, with a well-balanced team that works hard for the ball. They have the 2nd-most sprints per match of any team in the tournament and top players like Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Diaz. However, Saibari, who’s scored 3 goals, is doubtful with a hamstring injury.
Morocco are the underdogs here, but we expect them to give France a tough game. Still, we predict that France will have enough quality to win with ease.
Spain vs Belgium prediction
We’re predicting Belgium to upset the odds here and win on penalties.
Spain are the only team left in the tournament to avoid conceding a goal. They’ve looked solid at controlling the game, but have hardly set the tournament alight with their attack. They’ve scored 9 goals so far, with Oyarzabal scoring 4.
Meanwhile, Belgium have looked shaky at times but have grown into the tournament. They came back from 2 goals down to beat Senegal before defeating USA 4-1. Trossard has been their top player, but Lukaku has rolled back the years to score 3 goals this tournament.
Spain have been knocked out on penalties a record 4 times. We think Belgium will have enough quality to hold Spain to a draw and advance on penalties.
England vs Norway prediction
We’re predicting England to win 3-2 after extra time.
This is an interesting matchup because England arguably have more quality across their squad. They have the attacking talents of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, who have scored a total of 10 goals between them. Meanwhile, Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon are their key chance creators on the wings, while Declan Rice is dangerous from set pieces. However, their defence has looked shaky. They’ve conceded 5 goals heading into the quarterfinals.
Norway has Haaland, of course, and we’re backing him to score against England’s shaky defence. He’s scored 7 of Norway’s 12 goals this tournament. Arguably, Norway rely on him playing well, but they do also have top players like Martin Odegaard and Patrick Berg to control the ball and play dangerous passes.
It will be a tough match for England, but we think they’ll come out on top following extra time to advance to the next knockout round.
Argentina vs Switzerland prediction
We’re predicting Argentina to win 2-1.
Argentina came back from 2 goals down to beat Egypt. Despite playing poorly, they were able to turn things around, and all of their players have a knack for big moments that change games. Lionel Messi is the standout star of course, with 8 goals. However, the rest of the team has chipped in with goals, including their centrebacks Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero.
Switzerland defeated Colombia on penalties against the odds in their Round of 32 match. Not many people predicted they would get this far, but they have some talented players in their squad. Johan Manzambi has stood out, but Granit Xhaka has also been excellent.
While Messi is in such great form, no one can rule out Argentina in a knockout match. We expect them to defeat Switzerland and advance to the semifinals.
Bracket predictions: which side of the draw reaches the final
The top half of the draw features France vs Morocco and Belgium vs Spain. The winners of these quarterfinals will face each other in the first semifinal. So it will either be France or Morocco vs Belgium or Spain in the semifinal on 14 July. We predict it will be France vs Belgium and for France to advance to the final.
The bottom half of the tournament draw includes England vs Norway and Argentina vs Switzerland. The semifinal will be the winner of England vs Norway against the winner of Argentina vs Switzerland on 15 July. We predict this will be England vs Argentina, with Argentina advancing to the final.
Semifinal predictions
France vs Belgium - France win 2-0
England vs Argentina - Argentina win 2-1
Our final prediction and score
Our World Cup final prediction is for France to beat Argentina 2-1.
We’re predicting a repeat of the 2022 World Cup final, with France taking on Argentina once more. Last time, Argentina prevailed thanks to the heroics of Messi. Mbappe scored a hat-trick, but it wasn’t enough. This time, we predict things will go slightly differently. This French team looks better than ever, and possibly not even Messi can stop them.
Golden Boot prediction: can anyone catch Messi?
Entering the quarterfinals, Lionel Messi is just ahead in the 2026 Golden Boot race with 8 goals. He’s closely followed by Kylian Mbappe (7), Erling Haaland (7) and Harry Kane (6).
Messi has proven his doubters wrong this World Cup and rolled back the years to show why he’s still one of the greatest players in the world. Argentina survived a scare against Egypt in the Round of 32, coming from 2 goals down to win 3-2, with Messi missing a penalty, assisting one goal, and scoring another.
Mbappe has been the star of the French team, who have looked more or less unstoppable this tournament. They’ve comfortably won every game, and we’re predicting they’ll reach the final, giving Mbappe a great chance to win the Golden Boot.
Haaland is a goal-scoring machine, leading Norway to the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in history. In their Round of 32 tie against Brazil, he won the match, scoring 2 goals despite having few touches. Norway face England next, and have a real chance to score against their defence, which has looked shaky throughout the tournament.
Kane has been one of the best strikers in the world this season and has carried his form into the tournament. He’s scored 6 goals, including 2 penalties, for England, and they now face Norway in the quarterfinal. If they can reach the final, we expect Kane to have a great chance of winning the Golden Boot.
The latest Golden Boot odds are available on our 2026 tournament outrights page.
Knockout value bets, upsets and parlays
There are lots of betting markets to choose from during the knockout stages. For example, you can bet on whether a team will be eliminated by a penalty shootout and bet on the top goalscorer for a specific team.
Spain losing on penalties could be a value bet. Their defence has looked strong this tournament, having conceded no goals up to the quarterfinals. They have a poor penalty shootout record overall, and they’re the first nation to ever lose 4 penalty shootouts in the history of the tournament. Most recently, they lost 3-0 in a shootout against Morocco at the 2022 Cup.
The winner and top goalscorer market might also offer value. For example, if France wins the tournament, there’s a good chance that Mbappe will also win the Golden Boot. Look out for value in player props on individual matches too.
Spain are a heavy favourite against Belgium in the quarterfinal, but Spain struggled to create big chances against Portugal. We think this match could offer the potential for an upset, with Belgium defeating Spain on penalties.
Our quarterfinal parlay is for France, Argentina and England to win their matches. When choosing your best bets for a parlay, the Stake Shield option is available.
Where to bet on the 2026 international football tournament
Stake offers competitive odds on all matches of the 2026 international football tournament. What’s more, there are novelty markets and amazing betting promotions. Check out the outright, pre-match and live betting markets and join the VIP Club to unlock rewards by placing bets. The VIP FAQ page has more details on how you can benefit from rakeback, reload bonuses, and your own VIP host.
