Juan Sebastián Cabal Exclusive Interview - Australian Open Insights
We caught up with Juan Sebastián Cabal, Stake ambassador and doubles champ, to get his take on the Australian Open, rising stars, and the mental and physical edge needed to shine in Grand Slams. Check out the full interview and the latest tennis odds at Stake Sportsbook.
Australian Open 2026
Obviously, Jannik and Carlos are dominating the circuit, but in a Grand Slam, anything can happen over two weeks. Everything has to work perfectly—body, mind, and tennis—so 10% feels very low for the others; I would set it a bit higher. They are the ones in command, but I wouldn’t give the others such a small chance. We’ve seen how Taylor Fritz has beaten Alcaraz in several matches, Sinner has lost to a couple of others, and Djokovic is always there, so he can never be ruled out.
Novak Djokovic arrives this year with projections giving him barely a 9% chance of victory—something unthinkable two years ago. From your technical perspective, do you consider that the physical toll in Melbourne reduces his chances to a single digit, or does his "on-court IQ" still count for more than any statistic?
It’s the first Grand Slam of the year following a preseason, and that makes you feel great physically. This helps in dominating the early matches, handling the heat, and the long hours of play. It’s not the same playing during the day as it is at night—the calendar and the order of play create many variables that apply to everyone. This leads me to say that 9% is a very low percentage for Djokovic; let’s remember he has been one of the best in history. We know he hasn’t won in a couple of years and that Carlos or Jannik have beaten him in almost every recent tournament, but ultimately, he is a great winner, and I wouldn’t take him off the "winner's table" so easily.
So, if the projections are 9% for Djokovic, how much would you give him?
We are talking about 90% for Jannik and Alcaraz and 9% for Djokovic; that implies only 1% for everyone else. But I believe there are several players knocking on the door of semifinals and quarterfinals in various tournaments, so I would lower the bias toward Jannik and Alcaraz a bit, keep the 9% for Djokovic, and leave the remainder for the rest.
Historically in Melbourne, whoever wins the first set ends up taking the match in almost 70% of cases. As a doubles expert used to managing high-pressure moments, how decisive do you think that percentage is today with the speed of the "GreenSet" surface?
On the Australian courts specifically, the play is very fast, and I believe that first set—aside from the surface itself—is a "confidence embryo" for the player. Winning that first set when matches are best-of-five gives you a certain level of confidence and helps you regulate the match.
In the WTA draw, Aryna Sabalenka starts as the heavy favorite with an implicit probability of success near 33%. Taking into account that Madison Keys is the defending champion, do you see Sabalenka with that "one-in-three" advantage to reclaim the throne?
Aryna has dominated the circuit for a couple of years and has been very constant. She is a great player who could blow everyone off the court in 10 minutes if she wanted to. This makes her the favorite, but there is Iga Świątek, Coco Gauff, and clearly Madison Keys, the defending champion. Nothing is set in stone; these are two weeks where there are no second chances.
Who is your favorite from that list?
From the heart, I would include Camila Osorio and Emiliana Arango, the best talent we have in Colombia today, but as I said, there are the other opponents who already know what it’s like to win a Grand Slam and are not intimidated by the situation or the rival.
There are names like Ben Shelton or Joao Fonseca who appear with less than a 3% probability of winning. If you had to "buy stock" in an underdog, who would you give a higher percentage of confidence to bust the bracket and reach the semifinals?
I like Ben Shelton a lot, depending on the draw. Alexander Bublik is also a very dangerous player who has already made quarterfinals. Then there's Fritz, who has made semifinals at the US Open and Wimbledon.
Let's talk about our own Camila Osorio. She’s coming off very close battles in Hobart, and the draw in Australia is always demanding. What percentage of importance do you give to her physical preparation this year so she can break her "glass ceiling" in Grand Slams and advance to the second week?
It’s always a tough barrier to break. Passing into that second week for the first time is always something talked about in the locker room, but obviously, the physical part is fundamental here. How they prepare, recovery, the yearly schedule, the training—I know she had a good preseason, but we’ve seen that injuries have affected Camila and hurt her results. Let’s hope she arrives in good physical shape.
Melbourne is famous for radical thermal changes. Statistics show that the performance of South American players drops by 15% when the temperature exceeds 35°C. How should Camila manage that factor so her probability of victory isn't affected by extreme weather?
The hottest hours are known in advance, so you have to start preparing with the schedules, hydration, and obviously the physical and tactical side. But what is hardest is the hard court; for Latinos, it’s not the best surface. When it’s that hot, the ball becomes faster, and this condition affects Latinos who are used to clay courts. Meanwhile, a European is used to training on indoor courts and adjusts better to the conditions.
Jannik Sinner is projected as the absolute favorite in the men’s draw, with odds of 1.85 on Stake. Who is your favorite for the tournament, and are you going to bet on Sinner winning the Australian Open?
I don’t think my family will like what I’m about to say because they are fans of Carlos Alcaraz and I get along very well with him, but with the weather conditions, I think they favor Jannik much more. So, if I’m going to bet on someone, it would be him.
For a Colombian tennis player, debuting in a Major is always an emotional challenge. Do you think success in the first round depends 80% on the head and only 20% on the tennis, especially when external projections don’t have you as the favorite?
Totally. When we competed, we were very clear about it. Your head always has to be there—the attitude, the grit, the energy always have to be shown, whether you are playing well or poorly. In the end, as the professional I was, we won many tournaments playing badly and lost many playing well. What matters most is how you fight every match.
After your retirement and Robert Farah's, there is a void in Colombian doubles. If you had to evaluate the potential of the new generation, what percentage of possibilities do you see of Colombia having a pair in the Top 10 again in the next 5 years?
We are talking about a very near future; I know there is talent and a future there, but I doubt it for the next five years.
Looking at your own "betting slip" or predictions for this year, do you know about the Stake promotion designed specifically for those heartbreaking moments? It offers a refund of up to $100 if the player you bet on to win the tournament ends up losing their match in a tiebreak in the final set.
This is amazing news. It's the first time I've heard it, and you have to take advantage of it. For my bets, I would definitely go with Alcaraz. On a Stake Multi, I would include almost the entire tournament draw because there are many 7-6 sets, and in the fifth set, there is usually a tiebreak—that is the key to getting into the betting.
We are seeing that on fast surfaces like Melbourne Park, short points (under 4 shots) can decide games. Do you think we are returning to an era where the serve is the most important thing in the match, or has the return evolved enough to neutralize it?
The serve has always been important in tennis, as has not having your serve broken. Technology has helped speed, allowing the player to increase their serve velocity, and obviously, what marks the difference there is how well you return those types of serves to counter the advantage.
Juan, since you had the opportunity to be at the Australian Open, what is that anecdote or memory that marked your career playing this Grand Slam?
We played many finals, but speaking of extreme weather conditions, we had to play when it felt like 50 degrees (122°F). I remember playing with black Tourna Grip and the sun was so strong it was burning me, so I was playing while tucking it under my shirt.
Every Grand Slam has a special ingredient; what is the Australian Open’s?
Definitely the weather; the conditions are very different and change the speed of the ball and the state of the court. One factor I remember fondly is the Australian fan—they are great and create an environment with very good energy on the court.
